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Bitcoin diverges from legacy markets as ‘breathtaking’ rally predicted

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A report published by major U.S.-based crypto exchange Kraken has identified signs the correlation between Bitcoin (BTC), the greenback, and legacy markets, is continuing to weaken.

Kraken’s September volatility report found Bitcoin (BTC) largely maintaining a negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since May, despite a brief coalescence between the two markets in early September.

Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling correlation with U.S Dollar Index: Kraken

The report attributes BTC’s dollar divergence to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s plan to maintain zero percent interest rates until at least 2023, in addition to declining growth rates. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown positive correlation with the Euro since May.

The report notes that while the start of the month saw an 8-month low for correlation between BTC and the S&P 500, the correlation would later increase as both markets experienced sideways consolidation.

Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has remained positive since mid-July, with both markets experiencing bearish pressure over recent weeks.

Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling correlation with Gold: Kraken

Looking forward, Kraken anticipates Bitcoin will post a stronger performance in October than in September, and this would be consistent with the trend exhibited in eight of the past nine years.

The report predicts October will drive an 11% gain for BTC, suggesting Bitcoin will close the month at $11,850 — a 3% gain from current price levels. However, Kraken notes that Bitcoin has underperformed its monthly average during six of the nine months that have transpired in 2020 so far.

Kraken’s mild optimism is outshone by the bullish calls from two respected analysts. Former hedge fund manager Raoul Pal recently revealed he has shifted more than half of his personal investment portfolio into Bitcoin in anticipation of massive institutional adoption:

“Just from what I know from all the institutions, all of the people I speak to, there is an enormous wall of money coming into this.”

And Alex Saunders from Nugget’s News compared the current set up to mid-2017 and predicted that institutional appetite for Bitcoin was likely to trigger a “breathtaking rally”:

In an update to subscribers last night he said:

“Publicly traded companies [and] legendary investors are singing from the rooftops about this new asset class at a time when there’s record money sitting in bank accounts looking to find a home.”





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Bitcoin

Bitcoin Must Consolidate Above This Key Level, Or Risk Plunging to $11,900

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  • It has been a wild past few days for Bitcoin and the aggregated cryptocurrency market
  • Bitcoin has been able to post consistent gains throughout as of late, with buyers and sellers largely reaching an impasse following its slight rejection at $13,200
  • This has created a slight consolidation phase around $13,000 that it has been caught within throughout the past two days
  • If this phase persists in the near-term, BTC must continue holding above $12,800
  • One analyst noted that a break below this level could open the gates for a move down to lows of $11,900

Bitcoin and the aggregated cryptocurrency market have seen a roller-coaster week, with Bitcoin’s previous weakness being fully erased by bulls who sent it surging to fresh yearly highs of $13,200.

This move’s intensity has sparked a sense of euphoria and hope amongst traders and investors, with may expecting further upside in the days and weeks ahead.

For this to come to fruition, bulls must continue defending against a break below $12,800.

One analyst noted that a break below this level could open the gates for BTC to see a sharp decline down towards $11,900.

Bitcoin Struggles to Gain Momentum as Selling Pressure Mounts 

On a short-term scale, Bitcoin’s momentum is faltering slightly due to some heavy selling pressure within the lower-$13,000 region.

Until it can break above this region, there’s a possibility that a retrace could be imminent in the near-term.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading flat at its current price of $12,985. This is around the price at which it has been trading for the past couple of days.

Each selloff has been aggressively absorbed by bulls, which is a positive sign.

Analyst: Here’s the Crucial Defense BTC Needs to Defend

While sharing his thoughts on Bitcoin’s present technical outlook, a popular crypto-focused analyst and trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange noted that $12,800 is the key support level to watch in the near-term.

He contends that a defense of this level could lead BTC towards $13,500, whereas a rejection could cause it to drop towards $11,900.

“Bitcoin: As long as $12,750-12,800 holds, I think $13,500 is next. But if it doesn’t hold as a pivot, I assume the price drops further down toward $12,200 and potentially $11,900.”

Image Courtesy of Crypto Michael. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.

How the entire market trends in the months ahead will depend on Bitcoin. This makes it vital for BTC and altcoins investors alike that the benchmark crypto maintains its newfound momentum.

Featured image from Unsplash.
Charts from TradingView.





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Top traders say Bitcoin log chart points to a 2017-style BTC bull run

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Peter Brandt, a well-regarded veteran trader, recently emphasized the high demand from institutions as a key catalyst for Bitcoin’s strong performance.

BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: TradingView

The strong high time frame technical structure of BTC, especially the weekly chart, and the strengthening fundamentals are buoying the market sentiment. In a tweet, Brandt posted the above chart and said:

“Bitcoin—IF the current gains hold through end of Oct—is poised for the second-highest monthly close ever. $BTC Institutions are increasingly involved in Bitcoin ownership. Institutions mark the value of their assets monthly.”

In addition to the rise in trading volume and growing institutional appetite, investors are referring to the logarithmic chart to forecast a broader rally.

Raoul Pal focuses on the Bitcoin log chart

The log price chart is the most widely used scale by most technical analysts. A logarithmic chart simply means a chart that represents common percent changes with equal spacing in a scale.

Raoul Pal, the founder and CEO of Real Vision Group, says Bitcoin’s monthly log chart is highly optimistic. He wrote:

“Its a bitcoin kind of day. The monthly log chart with regression lines is really something to behold. One of the nicest, post powerful chart patterns I’ve ever seen.”

The technical reason behind the optimism towards the monthly log chart is mainly its clean breakout. Throughout the past four years, $13,000 has acted as a heavy resistance level.

The historical log chart of Bitcoin. Source: Raoul Pal

As such, on high time frame charts, like the weekly and the monthly chart, BTC always closed below $11,000, except for 2020.

Bitcoin’s clean technical breakout on the monthly timeframe is leading traders and investors like Brandt and Pal to make strong bullish calls on BTC’s price action. As Pal said, “if history rhymes, 2021 is going to be a BIG year.”

BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: TradingView.com

Q4 2020 may end on a positive note

Apart from the numerous bullish technical and fundamental catalysts, the timing of the current rally is also in favor of a major Bitcoin bull cycle.

Bitcoin quarterly returns in percentage. Source: Skew

According to data from Skew, Bitcoin had not had three positive consecutive quarters since 2017. During that year, BTC reached its all-time high at $20,000 following its second block reward halving in 2016.

Bitcoin could possibly be on track to record a massively positive gain in the fourth quarter if it stays above $12,000. If so, that could lead to the same bull cycle pattern as 2017. Next year would also present the same post-halving cycle BTC saw in 2017, which further strengthens the narrative of a newfound bull cycle.