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Bitcoin price must hold $11,000 for October rally to continue

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Bitcoin (BTC) price broke upward in the first half of October, resulting in a rally from $10,500 to $11,700. However, the momentum may be shifting once more as strength diminishes across the cryptocurrency market. 

A similar setup also happened prior to Bitcoin’s latest upward break with sideways consolidation in BTC causing altcoins to drop south heavily, especially the Defi sector.

Rangebound and holding $11,000

But significant support at $11,000 is now a must-hold level to resume the bullish momentum, which may find difficulty clearing current levels as renewed coronavirus lockdowns are spooking investors.

Traders still remember the previous pandemic fear in March that caused prices of many assets across markets, including BTC, to drop severely.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a strict breakout above $11,000, which was critical for any bullish momentum.

However, sustaining support at $11,000 is a must for the bullish case to hold weight, making a test of the upper range at $12,000 increasingly likely. 

Gox Bitcoins stay put 

Many investors tend to factor in a potential sell-off of the 150,000 BTC involved in the Mt. Gox fiasco each time a new deadline nears. 

However, the deadline for the release of these Bitcoins was extended once again today diminishing these fears, or at least until Dec. 15, 2020 

4-hour chart

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the smaller timeframe shows a similar picture with the $11,000-11,150 area being a critical zone to hold as support. 

If that area is lost, a sharp dive is likely toward the $10,600 region. Even that CME gap below $10K may return as a topic of discussion. 

However, as the $11,000-11,200 level is such an important support zone to hold, holding here would warrant a test of the range’s upper region, lined out in the upper chart, namely $11,800-11,900 and potentially even $12,100. 

The real question is then whether Bitcoin has enough strength to break through that resistance level. Breaking $12K may see a massive bullish move that is likely to push up values across the entire crypto market. 

Total market cap looks to test $250 billion

Total market capitalization cryptocurrency 1-week chart

Total market capitalization cryptocurrency 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

The total market capitalization is still stuck inside a range. The upper part of the range is defined by the resistance zone between $380-405 billion. The lower part is found at $265-285 billion and is still untested. 

At the start of a new bull cycle, previous resistance levels get tested for support before further continuation occurs. 

A test of the $265-285 billion areas seems likely in that sense, as that would sustain a further continuation of the range-bound structure. Those range-bound constructions are also signs of the accumulation part of a new cycle. 

Next to that, if the total market capitalization starts to move sideways, the 100-week and 200-week moving averages (MAs) will come in to play as potential support. Those indicators are significant signs of support and further continuation upward as they define bull/bear markets.

Likely short-term scenario for BTC/USD 

BTC/USDT 6-hour chart

BTC/USDT 6-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The most likely scenario would be more upside and a possible test of the $12,000 area after successfully holding the $11,000-11,200 region as support.

However, an immediate breakout above $12,000 is not likely unless the U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY) starts to really tumble. Such a case would suit a very bullish breakout for the price of Bitcoin, opening up the possibility of new multi-year highs.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.





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Analyst Claims Bitcoin Unlikely to Gain a Trend Until 2 Key Events Occur

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  • It has been a rocky past week for Bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency has primarily been subjected to a bout of sideways trading
  • Its inability to gain any trend is likely due to the stock market’s consolidation phase
  • For better or worse, BTC has grown incredibly tied to the traditional market
  • Its near-term trend may depend almost entirely on that seen by equities
  • That said, one analyst is now pointing towards two key events currently taking place that need to end before Bitcoin can make a movement

Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market have been caught within a consolidation phase throughout the past few days and weeks.

This bout of sideways trading has done little to provide traders and investors with insight into where it may trend next.

Periods of consolidation as intense as this one are nearly always following by massive movements. The longer and tighter the consolidation phase, the larger the subsequent move will be.

One analyst is now specifically looking towards the conclusion of two ongoing macro events, noting that until they end, BTC will likely continue trading sideways.

Bitcoin Struggles to Gain Momentum as Consolidation Persists

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading up marginally at its current price of $11,520. This marks a notable climb from its recent lows but does not mark a break above any key technical levels.

The current trading range that it is caught within sits between $11,200 and $11,600. Until one of these levels is broken, it remains in a consolidation phase.

The longer this bout of sideways trading lasts, the bigger the subsequent move will be. Essentially, Bitcoin is like a spring coiling up.

The coming weeks will likely provide immense insight into how the crypto will finish the year.

Analyst: Election and Politics are Holding BTC Back 

While speaking about where Bitcoin might trend in the mid-term, one analyst explained that the politics stopping the phase 2 stimulus deal from being passed and uncertainty surrounding the election are both holding BTC back.

He doesn’t believe that the crypto will gain a sustainable trend until these two things come to an end.

“I think BTC trading will continue to be pretty boring until the uncertainty of elections/politics are over. Macro-trend says up. Micro-trend says ‘gimme your lunch money, kid.’”

This indicates that it may be a few more weeks before Bitcoin can garner a trend, which could make its next big movement explosive.

Featured image from Unsplash.
Pricing data source: BTCUSD on TradingView.





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Fool’s gold? Peter Schiff’s bank under investigation in tax evasion probe

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This morning, millionaire broker and noted Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff awoke to find his bank under renewed scrutiny due to an international criminal investigation. 

According to reporting from Australian newspaper The Age and The New York Times, the J5 — a joint task force of tax authorities from major Western governments convened in the wake of the bombshell publication of the Panama Papers — have placed “hundreds” of accounts at Schiff’s Puerto Rico-based Euro Pacific Bank under investigation for tax evasion and other financial crimes. 

The reports detail what appears to be a comically inept organization responsible for harboring the fortunes of a cast of shady businessmen and criminals. Employees hired after a quick Google search screening were tasked with attracting clients such as Simon Antequetil, the noted Australian fraudster and tax avoidance maestro.

The reports also shed light on how Euro Pacific may have tainted public holdings of Schiff’s favorite asset: gold. 

Former Australian Federal Police (AFP) investigator John Chevis discovered in 2017 that West Australian government-owned Perth Mint had a relationship with Euro Pacific. 

“I was very surprised,” Chevis told The Age. “I think there’s a significant risk that some of the gold held within the Perth Mint by customers of the Euro Pacific Bank may be held beneficially for criminals in other parts of the world.”

In an interview with The Age last month, Schiff denied wrongdoing on the part of Euro Pacific, saying the bank “turns down far more accounts than we approve because our compliance is so rigorous”. 

“It’s got nothing to do with reality,” he said of the allegations.

He later stormed out of the interview.

But nestled amid the reports is a key detail which may shed some light on why Schiff has been such a virulent critic of the world’s most popular cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. 

From The Age:

“The bank’s security was also a problem […] at one point, Russians tried to extort the bank for a ransom of 1000 bitcoins, worth millions of dollars.”

While Schiff was criticizing Bitcoin as early as 2013, the attempted extortion scheme might explain why he’s been particularly vocal as of late, most notably in a Twitter spat with Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss.

Schiff has also demonstrated a history of paranoia regarding hacks, especially cryptocurrency-related hacks. In July, Schiff augured that the hack of multiple Twitter accounts by an American teenager might be a “harbinger” for a Bitcoin hack, and in April he tweeted about “the potential for improvements in technology to hack the blockchain and counterfeit Bitcoin.”

Despite Schiff’s concerns over the potential hacking of the Bitcoin blockchain, there is no equivalent in the digital asset world to iron pyrite. Unless we count BSV.





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Bitcoin May Plunge in Q4 Due to a Tax-Induced Selling Frenzy

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  • Bitcoin’s price action as of late has done little to offer investors with any tangible insights into where it may trend next
  • Analysts have been largely noting that the cryptocurrency’s outlook is being dimmed by turbulence within the stock market, which may persist until after the elections
  • Many traders do believe that the rest of Q4 will be a bullish month for BTC, as this may be when it can decouple from the stock market and garner some independent momentum
  • One analyst explained that he believes downside is imminent in the quarter ahead, noting that whales will have to cash out some of their crypto to cover taxes, which could spark a selloff

Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have lacked momentum throughout the past few days and weeks.

This has largely come about due to the turbulence within the stock market, with bulls and bears being unable to spark any short-term trends as the stock market consolidates.

This sideways trading pattern may not last for too much longer. One analyst noted that BTC might see a selloff induced by whales selling their crypto to cover taxes.

He notes that this sentiment is being reflected while looking towards options market makers.

Bitcoin Lacks Momentum as Stock Market Continues Consolidating 

The stock market hasn’t been able to form any clear trend as of late, with investors widely awaiting more insights into a phase 2 stimulus package that has yet to be agreed upon by Congress and the White House.

As the election also draws closer, investors are potentially awaiting its results before opening fresh positions.

This has caused Bitcoin to see a similar bout of lackluster price action. Both bulls and bears have largely reached an impasse and have been unable to spark any short-term trend.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading up marginally at its current price of $11,400. This is around the price at which it has been trading throughout the past week.

Analyst: BTC Likely to See Tax-Induced Selloff Later in Q4

One analyst offered a bearish outlook on Bitcoin and the crypto market in Q4, noting that he expects it to see a selloff induced by whales taking out money to cover taxes.

“Its hard to for me to imagine a Q4 pump mega. All whales selling in order to prep to tax. Unless you’re telling me that the majority of crypto are in tax havens such as SG and HK. Sentiments shared amongst options market makers who are pricing monthly IV at 30%+,” he explained.

Image Courtesy of Theta Seek.

If the options market makers prove to be correct, then it could be a turbulent coming few months for Bitcoin.

Featured image from Unsplash.
Charts from TradingView.





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