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Citibank analyst makes tentative $318K Bitcoin prediction for December 2021

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A recent Bitcoin (BTC) technical analysis prepared by CitiFX for its institutional clients points to a potential high of $318,000 sometime in December 2021.

As highlighted by Twitter commentator Alex on Nov. 14, the exact figure is of little value over such a long time frame. However, the analysis does suggest that Bitcoin “price is likely to continue to go up, and a lot.”

Describing Bitcoin as 21st-century gold, the analyst, Tom Fitzpatrick, first looks at the long-term trend of Bitcoin price, characterized as it has been by, “unthinkable rallies followed by painful corrections.”

Notably however, the three major bullish periods of BTC so far have been increasing in length. Initially, there was a 10-month run from 2010–2011, followed by a two-year run from 2011–2013, and finally a three-year run covering 2015–2017.

Conversely, Fitzpatrick posits that the period of correction following the last two bull runs has remained stable at around 12 months.

This, according to the analysis, places us squarely in the middle of a bull run which started in early 2019 and is potentially set to run for four years until late 2022.

It could be argued that such an extended bull run would lead to even higher levels, and charting “what looks like a very well defined channel” over the past seven years gives Fitzpatrick his prediction of a $318,000 Bitcoin price in December 2021.

While conceding that this figure may seem highly improbable, he points out that this “would only be a low to high rally of 102 times (the weakest rally so far in percentage terms) at a point where the arguments in favour of Bitcoin could well be at their most persuasive ever.”

These arguments include a change in the United States Federal Reserve’s monetary policy which occurred when the coronavirus pandemic hit. This was characterized by a vast and sustained increase in new money production, with less intention to constrain this once the economy and employment pick up again.





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Bitcoin Continues Plowing Higher as Uptrend Shows Few Signs of Slowing

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  • Bitcoin has been pushing higher throughout the past few days and weeks, with sellers being wholly unable to gain any ground against bulls
  • This comes as BTC pushes past $19,000, which has long been a strong resistance level that has sparked multiple fleeting selloffs
  • Now that it is firmly above this level, it may be well-positioned to see significantly further upwards momentum in the near-term
  • One analyst is noting that its failure to break below any key support levels throughout the course of its uptrend suggests that further upside is imminent

Bitcoin and the entire crypto market are looking strong by the day, with Bitcoin taking full control of the aggregated market’s trend as analysts eye further near-term upside.

The selling pressure seen as of late has all been absorbed, with each dip only lasting for a brief amount of time.

This trend is common in bull markets and could indicate that a move past the cryptocurrency’s all-time highs is imminent in the days and weeks ahead.

One trader observed in a recent tweet that the lack of any support breaks indicates that there is no reason to suspect any imminent downturn just yet.

Bitcoin Continues Plowing Higher as Bulls Take Aim at All-Time Highs

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading up just under 6% at its current price of $19,420. This marks the highest price levels seen by the cryptocurrency since the peak of its 2017 uptrend.

It is now just a few hundred dollars away from setting fresh all-time highs. Although there may be some serious resistance at this price level, a break above it could send it into price discovery mode.

Where the market trends in the mid-term will depend largely on whether or not it can continue holding above the key $19,000 price level in the near-term.

BTC Defends Key Support Levels as Uptrend Persists

One trader is noting that Bitcoin has yet to break below any of its key support levels throughout the course of its multi-week uptrend.

This means that there’s a strong chance it will continue pushing higher in the mid-term.

“BTC update: Nothing has changed, we’ve not yet lost any support. The recent consolidation in the last few days is a pretty neat new invalidation now, quite a bit higher than the last one. Switch gears once one fails.”

Image Courtesy of DonAlt. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.

So long as Bitcoin continues holding above its key support levels, there’s a strong possibility that it will set fresh all-time highs in the near-term.

Featured image from Unsplash.
Charts from TradingView.



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Google Trends shows ‘Bitcoin’ searches at 2020 high as BTC tops $19.4K

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Today Bitcoin (BTC) price extended its rally toward a new all-time high as the price surged to $19,412 in the morning trading session. 

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Determining the actual all-time high for BTC is somewhat debatable as various exchanges have different figures listed. For example, Coinbase has registered $19,892 as Bitcoin’s peak, whereas BitMEX and Binance have $19,891 and $19,799 respectively. Thus, for most traders, $20,000 is likely to be the primary focal point that will solidify BTC reaching a new all-time high.

Pushing through the $19,000 level occurred quicker than many expected, especially after Bitcoin price plummeted to $18,000 in the evening hours on Nov. 23. This drop was nearly in tandem with XRP’s 30% drop at Coinbase after the altcoin pumped to $0.92.

Bitcoin price and sentiment chart (hourly). Source: TheTIE

Data from TheTie, a social analytics data platform, shows that as Bitcoin price lost momentum on Nov. 22 and Nov. 23, trading sentiment took a noticeable hit when traders anticipated a possible retest of lower supports in the sub-$18,000 zone.

Bitcoin price vs daily sentiment score. Source: TheTIE

According to Joshua Frank, the founder at TheTIE:

“The daily sentiment score looks at how positive or negative investors have been over the last 24 hours versus a rolling 20-day window. This metric (daily sentiment) has been positive (above 50) since Nov. 16 when Bitcoin was near $16K. For the daily sentiment score to remain positive, that means that conversations must continually get more and more positive. So if investors are positive over the last 20 days, they must be even more positive over the last 24 hours for the score to stay above 50.”

This suggests that regardless of strong pullbacks to say $18,000 or below, the majority of people investing in or tracking Bitcoin price still feel overwhelmingly bullish about the digital asset’s prospects when compared to historical price and sentiment data.

Google search for Bitcoin reaches a 2020 high. Source: Google Trends

Google Trends data also shows that searches for the term ‘Bitcoin’ also reached a 2020 high today as the price rallied above $19,000 but the figure is nowhere near the high seen in December 2017.

What’s next for Bitcoin price?

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

As shown on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s flushout to $18,000 created a double bottom right at the key support, and bulls stepped in to buy the dip with 3 successive high volume spikes.

At the time of writing the price has already pulled back to restest the lower support at $18,900 and if this level fails to hold then the next support is at $18,650 which is slightly above the 20-MA and a high volume node on the VPVR.

Similar to the move up to $18,000, a period of consolidation and support building is normal and healthy for sustaining momentum in an uptrend.

According to Matt Blom, the head of global sales trading at EQUOS:

“Bitcoin is focusing on claiming a new all-time high and it seems highly unlikely that having come this close, it fails to break the 2017 record. With a dearth of resistance levels overhead, thoughts turn to the next key upside target. Using Fibonnaci retracements levels, we see $29,100 as the goal, with a 1.618 move from $4,644 to $19,447 price points as our basis.”