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DeFi market fall showcases how rising TVL doesn’t tell the full story

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The decentralized finance market seems to be deflating after the DeFi summer craze when tokenized versions of Bitcoin and protocols, such as Uniswap and SushiSwap, outperformed the rest of the market. Earlier in October, the two main DeFi indices, Binance’s DeFi Composite Index and TokenSet’s DeFi Pulse Index Set lost more than 60% and 50% of their value, respectively. Meanwhile, total value locked in DeFi projects has been inching closer to its all-time high of $11.2 billion since late September.

DeFi Composite Index was launched by Binance Futures in late August, and it tracks the DeFi market performance using a basket of DeFi protocol tokens listed on Binance. This index is denominated in Tether (USDT), using a weighted average of real-time prices of the basket of DeFi tokens on Binance which were selected. A rebalance of this index happens on a weekly basis where LEND was rebalanced in October due to it’s delisting.

DeFi Pulse Index launched by TokenSet selects the tokens from the top 10 DeFi protocols by TVL according to data published by Defi Pulse. This basket is rebalanced monthly as compared to the weekly rebalance done for DCI.

TVL is the value of assets locked in a particular DeFi protocol. It often serves as a metric for various DeFi sources to be the reference point for the amount of adoption and credibility of a DeFi protocol. However, it remains questionable whether TVL accurately measures the interest in the DeFi market. Sam Bankman-Fried, the chief operating officer of FTX — a crypto derivatives exchange based in Hong Kong — told Cointelegraph that this value can often be artificially inflated by subsidizing users with airdrops, similar to what Uniswap did in September. He concluded:

“TVL is a pretty meaningless metric: (a) you can pay for temporary TVL with airdrops; and (b) as more capital gets comfortable with yield farming, more farms. But yield farming doesn’t support prices.”

Gregory Klumov, the chief operating officer of Stasis — an issuer of a Euro-backed stablecoin — told Cointelegraph that the period now referred to as “the DeFi summer craze” mainly benefited the tokenized Bitcoin, adding:

“Most of the BTC protocols being utilized for farming to get additional exposure to DeFi projects without losing exposure to BTC, which seems the most logical risk-taking activity for Bitcoin investors. The TVL increase can’t be the real indicator of the DeFi token valuation, which was clearly ahead of the product development phase.”

With most of the prominent DeFi tokens losing value in the double digits in October, the cumulative market capitalization for all DeFi assets also shrunk by 25% on Oct. 8 alone; the major losers were SushiSwap (SUSHI), Uni Coin (UNI) and Yearn.finance (YFI), dropping 50.9%, 38.2% and 31.3%, respectively. This reduction in the value of DeFi assets has translated to the collaterals locked in DeFi platforms as well.

Although this drop in metrics throughout the DeFi market might seem alarming to most investors, according to Klumov, it could also be viewed as a healthy correction where DeFi assets will now find their true value, adding that TVL should not be the go-to metric: “Since the market is maturing, more complicated metrics have to be established to properly identify winners and losers.”

Ethereum transaction fees

Along with DeFi, Ethereum transaction fees have also become a pivotal talking point within the crypto community. Transaction fees are the average cost of sending Ether (ETH) over the network. These fees reached their all-time high of $15.2 on Sept. 2 before spiraling down to $1.47 on Oct. 12. This fee is still higher than the $0.08 figure that was charged at the beginning of the year. A similar hike was seen on the Bitcoin blockchain back in December 2017 when the average transaction fee went over $50, causing the daily volumes and value of transactions to fall as well.

This spike in Ethereum traction fees resulted in miners making record transaction fee revenues for two months straight over Bitcoin, which held the top spot until now. The rise in fees seems to have deterred investors in the DeFi space, as it has raised the average transaction price for each transaction. Meanwhile, Bankman-Fried pointed to the negative impacts that this increment has on DeFi transactions in Ethereum: “Volumes would probably be significantly higher if Ethereum had lower fees and higher throughput. That’s what makes me really excited about scaling solutions.”

Klumov outlined how the DeFi community, at large, has benefited from higher fees, while also lauding the Ethereum blockchain for coping well: “It raised the minimum ticket per transaction, which can compensate for the higher gas fees. That’s why other blockchains followed with their DeFi offerings, but most haven’t managed to generate enough traction.” He further added: “This is primarily because of the convenience and security Ethereum offers at the settlement level.”

The DeFi craze, combined with the high transaction fees, has caused the hash rate for the Ethereum network to hit its all-time high of more than 250 terahashes per second on Oct. 6, marking an 80% increase since January. The hash rate refers to the computing power of the network, which acts as an indicator of the health and security of a blockchain. A high hash rate improves the rate of transactions and, in turn, the revenues made by miners on these transactions, resulting in Ether being three times more rewarding to mine compared to Bitcoin (BTC).

Is the DeFi crash similar to 2008?

Back in 2008, the traditional financial markets were rocked as a result of the complex nature of products such as collateralized debt obligations and mortgage-backed securities, which confused and misled investors into opting for schemes they knew very little about. It resulted in the markets crashing, sparking a global recession and eventually costing the American economy alone $12.8 trillion.

The complexities in DeFi are often of a similar nature where both the investors and the experts do not entirely understand how the DeFi markets function. According to what Richard Red, research and strategy lead of the Decred digital currency, told Cointelegraph, “The complexity that results from the interactions of all these novel protocols means that it can be very difficult even for experts to know exactly what is happening.” He further added that “there was at one stage more Dai showing up on the Compound protocol than had been minted.”

While highlighting the similarities between the current DeFi crash and the 2008 financial crisis, it would also be important to note the differences between the two scenarios, especially from the perspective of investors, as Red said:

“Many people who participate in DeFi recognize that what they are doing is risky, but are enticed to take those risks by high rates of return on their locked assets. Another difference is the much faster speed at which the DeFi ecosystem is developing.”

In this context, DeFi contrasts sharply with the original crypto project, Bitcoin, which was motivated to build a system more resilient than the fiat economy. DeFi seems to have a different agenda wherein its degree of decentralization is being questioned due to the centralized nature of the oracles used in some of the protocols. Thus, it may result in only the key players and whales having an opportunity to evacuate once the market starts to wobble or even indulge in practices that lead to big profits for them by causing the system to tip over.

Related: DeFi Oracles, Explained





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Ethereum

Analysts Think Ethereum Will Surge as Bitcoin Holds $13,000 Support

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  • Ethereum has undergone a strong 10-15% rally over the past seven days that has brought it as high as $420.
  • The coin is expected to move towards $433 to “catch up” to Bitcoin.

Ethereum Expected to Surge As Bitcoin Holds Key Supports

Ethereum has undergone a strong 10-15% rally over the past seven days that has brought it as high as $420. The coin currently trades for $412 as it positions to move higher.

The strength in the price of ETH comes as Bitcoin has held the $13,000 support, which many feared would mark the top of the rally. Bitcoin currently trades for $13,150.

With BTC holding above $13,000, ETH is expected to move towards $433 to “catch up” to Bitcoin.

One analyst shared the chart below, showing that ETH will likely move to $433 before the weekend finishes, then continue towards the yearly highs at $490 by the end of the month.

Chart of ETH's price action over the past few weeks with an analysis by crypto trader Steve (@Thetradingtramp on Twitter). 
Source: ETHUSD from TradingView.com

Other analysts agree with this sentiment. One crypto-asset trader shared the chart below, showing that Ethereum’s recent price action has allowed it to flip the $407 horizontal into support. This suggests that it will push towards the next important horizontal level at $445 in the days ahead.

Image

 

Chart of ETH's price action over the past few weeks with an analysis by crypto trader Nekoz (@CryptoNekoz on Twitter).  
Source: ETHUSD from TradingView.com

Ethereum Has Strong On-Chain Trends

Ethereum has decent on-chain trends that suggest the uptrend will persist in the days ahead.

Santiment, a blockchain analytics firm, shared the chart below just recently with the following comment:

“There is good news and bad news for #Ethereum’s quest to again surpass the $420 price barrier. The good news is that miners aren’t selling, and there is a big increase in new $ETH addresses being created, and pre-existing addresses have shown an increase in activity. The bad news is that social sentiment is bordering on euphoric territory, and daily active deposits have jumped in a big way.”

Ethereum

Chart of ETH's price action over the past few months with an overlay of miner balances. Chart from Santiment

As the company notes, there are a few reasons to be concerned, namely around Ethereum social sentiment and the number of daily active deposits to exchanges.

Bitcoin rallying higher would likely be enough to drive ETH higher in the days ahead, though.

Featured Image from Shutterstock
Price tags: ethusd, ethbtc, ethusdt, btcusd, btcusdt, xbtusd
Charts from TradingView.com
Analysts Think Ethereum Will Surge as Bitcoin Holds $13,000 Support





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Ethereum researcher Virgil Griffith files motion to dismiss North Korea conspiracy charge

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Virgil Griffith, the former Ethereum Foundation researcher accused of conspiring to violate U.S. sanctions against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, filed a motion on Thursday to dismiss the charge against him on the grounds that prosecutors from the Southern District of New York have failed to properly state Griffith’s crime. 

Griffith, 37, was arrested by FBI agents on Nov. 28th, 2019 following a presentation at a conference in North Korea in April. 

Prosecutors allege that at the conference Griffith rendered services to the North Korean government in the form of “valuable information” he provided to DPRK officials, and that he “participated in conversations” about how to use blockchain technology to avoid sanctions. 

Griffith, meanwhile, contends that his presentation was a “highly general speech based on publicly available information.”

Thursday’s motion to dismiss the charge now hinges on whether or not planning and giving this presentation can be interpreted as a conspiracy to violate sanctions. 

In the motion, Griffith argues that because he was not paid for his attendance and was not under contract as a consultant, he was not providing a “service” to the DPRK, and that his speech is protected from U.S. government prohibition under the First Amendment. 

Additionally, Griffith argues that his presentation explicitly falls under an exemption in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for the sharing of “information” and “information materials.” 

The motion added: 

“If the speech Mr. Griffith purportedly gave is not ‘information,’ then nothing is.” 

As Cointelegraph has previously reported, Griffith’s case has divided the crypto community. 

In December, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin defended Griffith, saying:

“I don’t think what Virgil did gave DPRK any kind of real help in doing anything bad. He delivered a presentation based on publicly available info about open-source software. There was no weird hackery ‘advanced tutoring.’ […] Virgil made no personal gain from the trip. […] I hope U.S.A. […] focuses on genuine and harmful corruption that it and all countries struggle with rather than going after programmers delivering speeches.”



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Ethereum’s Ongoing Breakout Suggests a Move to $500 Is Possible

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  • The price of Ethereum currently trades for $420.
  • This price is $100 higher than the September lows and around 15% higher than the coin was trading last week.
  • ETH is expected to push higher in the weeks ahead as it surmounts pivotal technical levels on a short-term basis.
  • Analysts are eyeing a move to $500 as $420 holds as support.

Ethereum Expected to Move Towards $500 as Key Levels Are Passed

Ethereum has undergone a strong rally over the past few days as Bitcoin has gained steam. The price of ETH currently trades for $420, $100 higher than the September lows and around 15% higher than the coin was trading at last week.

ETH is expected to push higher in the weeks ahead as it surmounts pivotal technical levels on a short-term basis.

One crypto-asset trader shared the chart below on October 22nd. It shows that because ETH is moving past the “major resistance” of $420, it could be cleared for a move to $500.

Chart of ETH's price action since the start of July with analysis by crypto trader Cactus (@TheCryptoCactus on Twitter).
Source: ETHUSD from TradingView.com

The expectations of a move to retest the year-to-date highs near $490 have been echoed by other market participants.

Jonny Moe, a crypto swing trader, shared the chart below after the move higher. Like the aforementioned chart, it shows that ETH’s recent move to the upside is technically important due to the resistance levels the coin is crossing

“Nice break above the $395 flat top on $ETH. ETH doesn’t always give throwbacks, so a $395 throwback is certainly possible before higher, but I wouldn’t be on it. Otherwise, this looks good for a run back near the $490 highs.”

ETH2 Around the Corner

Ethereum’s strong price performance comes as the ETH2 upgrade, also known as Serenity, has drawn closer.

In a blog post, ConsenSys developer Ben Edgington said that the ETH2 Deposit Contract is expected to be published this week. The publishing of this contract will confirm that the Beacon Chain Genesis, which will launch ETH2 officially, will launch in the next few days.

“Basically, as I understand it, we are good to go: deposit contract in the next few days; beacon chain genesis 6-8 weeks later. (This is not an official statement!). Meanwhile, be careful out there. Many fake deposit contracts and Launchpad front-ends will erupt in the coming days. Look out for the official anouncements: do not send Eth to random contracts; this is not DeFi.”

This upgrade is expected to boost Ethereum’s value proposition as it will give the coin the ability to be staked, restricting supply. On a long-term basis, ETH2 is expected to result in long-term bull trend as the upgrade increases the network’s usability.

Featured Image from Shutterstock
Price tags: ethusd, ethbtc, ethusdt
Charts from TradingView.com
Ethereum's Ongoing Breakout Suggests a Move to $500 Is Possible





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