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Will ‘cracking’ Monero reveal treasure or fool’s gold?

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Recently, the United States Internal Revenue Service caused a stir in the crypto community when it put a bounty on the head of anonymity-focused crypto-asset Monero (XMR), offering $625,000 to anyone who could effectively track the purportedly untraceable asset. As the crypto and blockchain industry values anonymity and privacy, questions arise on the result of the effort, not to mention its plausibility.

“As of the current stage of cryptography science today, the Monero protocol is almost impossible to break with necessary certainty,” Pawel Kuskowski, CEO of Coinfirm — a blockchain analytics company — told Cointelegraph. “However, it does not mean that Monero assets tracing is impossible in an effective way,” he said, clarifying:

“Some initiatives can be beneficial to investigating cryptocurrency crime for authorities such as: running a large network of their own Monero nodes, analyzing any data seized by shuttering non-compliant service providers that involve Monero and utilizing spy software and wallets — the latter of which is particularly useful for investigations.”

Monero serves as one of the crypto industry’s most well-known anonymity-focused assets. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) post all transactions to a public ledger visible to anyone online. Although BTC transaction addresses remain pseudonymous, various tools and efforts can sometimes link transactions and addresses back to personal identities. Since its inception in 2014, Monero has had the ability to hide transaction values and sender addresses. The asset’s blockchain also conceals transactions and their sums from uninvolved third parties.

A firm alleges XMR-tracking powers

Blockchain analysis firm CipherTrace came forward on Aug. 31 touting supposed XMR-tracking technology, reportedly the first of its kind. “We recently added monero tracing capabilities to our investigative suite,” Dave Jevans, CEO of CipherTrace, told Cointelegraph in a follow-up conversation, adding:

“Our tools do not reveal the identities of the users sending or receiving monero transactions. It is up to law enforcement to find that information from mapping data from addresses, wallets, payment IDs, etc.”

The IRS steps in

The motivation for decoding XMR became more interesting on Sept. 11, however, when the governing tax authority of the U.S., the IRS, publicized its search for anyone capable of breaching Monero’s transaction-hiding technology, offering $625,000 as a reward for such intel. In an industry valuing privacy, helping a government agency with this type of endeavor appears antithetical to the space, in some ways.

“The IRS is offering this money for research and development, which is not as controversial or surprising as many in the media are making it sound,” Jevans explained, adding that the governing body is targeting involvement from a number of entities for the endeavor, only budgeting $1 million toward the effort. Therefore, the IRS publicized a $500,000 payment upfront, with a further performance-based $125,000 paid eight months later. Jevans declined to comment on whether or not CipherTrace plans to work with the IRS.

Kuskowski described the IRS reward as predictable, given the timing of the bounty, which was announced approximately five days after CipherTrace publicized its XMR-tracking tool. Kuskowski, however, did not mention CipherTrace by name, only hinting at the firm by noting the timing of events, as well as the firm’s probabilistic approach, which he described as: “Totally useless for investigations owing to authorities being unable to display clear evidence. In cryptography something either is or isn’t, it is not probable.”

The IRS unveiled two Monero-cracking champions on Sept. 30. Surprisingly, CipherTrace was not one of the two, although the race to beat crypto privacy also involved the government agency’s desire to defeat the privacy held within layer-two blockchain solutions, such as Bitcoin’s Lightning Network. Chainalysis and Integra FEC stood as the victors, beating 22 other applicants.

Doubt regarding Monero-tracking efforts

CipherTrace claims it wields Monero-tracking power, and the IRS, apparently, saw something promising from Chainalysis and Integra FEC, but the effectiveness and depth of such tracking remains up for discussion. “I am highly suspicious of any claims that corporations can trace Monero transactions,” a representative from Monero Outreach told Cointelegraph. As an independent workgroup, Monero Outreach teaches the public about the privacy-focused asset.

“While it may be possible to learn user information from network level metadata that is not concealed with Tor or a similar privacy network layer, they likely cannot trace the wallets or amounts for any transaction,” the representative explained. A common software, Tor facilitates anonymous interactions online. The representative added:

“If this were the case we would have already found out from the handful of research teams who work tirelessly studying Monero and looking for these type of vulnerabilities.”

If the three firms did indeed uncover methods for tracking Monero, the crypto space might actually benefit. XMR boasts a large number of involved developers laboring toward the code’s advancement while fixing any weaknesses that surface, according to the representative. Therefore, the asset improves following any uncovered weaknesses, the representative posited.

XMR loses value if cracked?

As of the time of publication, Monero is the 16th-largest cryptocurrency, based on CoinMarketCap data, sitting at a price of $102.41 per coin — but what happens to the asset’s value if it loses its privacy capabilities? Kuskowski opined:

“We believe that XMR’s value is almost close to zero if its anonymity aspect is removed as currently the majority of businesses that use it or offer it to clients (with the exception of some derivatives products) are on the edge of being legal.”

CipherTrace’s Jevans holds a slightly alternate view. “Monero’s construction is quite different from Bitcoin’s, so most likely, tracing Monero will always be more predictive than completely deterministic; however, a big break-through in reducing Monero’s anonymity would likely cause the price to go down initially,” he said, adding that privacy-seeking owners of the asset might quickly head for the exits, offloading the asset onto the market.

Even if its privacy is cracked, however, Jevans expects XMR will rebound in price once it sees listing on additional crypto exchanges, labeling significantly higher trading volume as the driver. “It’s also worth noting that bitcoin has never been anonymous and it’s always been valued more highly than monero,” he added.

Monero already trades on a vast number of crypto exchanges, providing a potential counterpoint to Jevan’s expectation. Additionally, Monero is known for its privacy-focus, which becomes null if its privacy is broken. In contrast though, delisting Monero has also become a recent trend, decreasing available volume. A number of platforms have delisted the asset for various reasons over the past two years, including Huobi and Bithumb.

Although Chainalysis declined to weigh in on the IRS’ effort to break Monero, the firm did offer up its perspective on XMR’s value if its privacy were broken. Maddie Kennedy, senior communications director for Chainalysis, told Cointelegraph:

“Cryptocurrency users, including bad actors, often have to choose between using a cryptocurrency like Monero for its enhanced privacy and Bitcoin for its convenience, availability and liquidity. Bitcoin already usually wins, especially as exchanges increasingly delist privacy coins in light of regulations.”

It’s also important to note that nefarious characters are not the only parties who value privacy technologies such as Monero. The coin offers a way for the everyday person to take back their privacy in an age filled with digital snooping and data selling. Governments and people in power treat privacy in digital spending as a foreign concept, when in reality, government-printed cash is the most anonymous option available and is used daily for illegal activities.



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Law Decoded: E Pluribus SHA-256

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New developments at the state level in the U.S. defined this week’s regulatory news.



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Big Bitcoin prediction, OKEx spooks markets, Ripple exec’s big mistake

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Coming every Sunday, Hodler’s Digest tracks every important crypto news story from the previous week. Essential reading for all Hodlers!

 

Top Stories This Week

 

Calm before the storm? Analyst says $20,000 Bitcoin is possible in three months

Bitcoin volatility has fallen to a 16-month low, indicating that a sharp move is on the horizon.

Large fluctuations tend to follow prolonged periods of consolidation, and according to a Bitazu Capital founding partner, Mohit Sorout, BTC could reach its previous all-time high if it was to break out today.

There are other factors at play. The U.S. dollar has been weak recently, and traditionally, this leads to strength across other “safe haven” assets. Bitcoin exchange reserves have also continued to plummet, indicating there’s a shortage of sellers… or a lack of trust in centralized platforms.

Cointelegraph analyst Michaël van de Poppe says BTC must hold $11,000 for October’s rally to continue — paving the way for a retest of $12,000 in the short term. Meanwhile, a report by Stack Funds suggests BTC has support to climb all the way to $15,000 if historic trends repeat themselves this year.

But this optimism isn’t universal. JPMorgan Chase experts believe Bitcoin is slightly overvalued and think the asset could see selling pressure ahead.

 

BTC and OKB plunge after OKEx suspends withdrawals

OKEx, a major crypto exchange, spooked the markets this week by announcing that it had suspended withdrawals.

The company said one of its private key holders was “cooperating with a public security bureau” concerning ongoing “investigations.”

In the immediate aftermath of Friday’s statement, Bitcoin fell nearly 3%, while OKEx’s native token, OKB, crashed 15%.

According to Caixin, OKEx founder Mingxing Xu — also known as Star Xu — was the executive who was questioned by authorities. The Chinese news agency also reported that he was investigated “at least a week ago” and had been absent at work for some time.

Industry executives have expressed surprise at how events unfolded. The Bitcoin Association’s president, Leo Weese, wrote: “That one person sits in China holding the keys to an entire offshore cryptocurrency exchange is probably the most surprising thing about this industry I learned this year. That customers don’t demand transparency about key management comes in at a close second, though.

Armstrong says “silent majority” supports Coinbase apolitical stance in leaked audio

Staff at Coinbase fear that the exchange’s leadership are watching their every move and monitoring their messages, it has been reported.

According to Motherboard, the exchange’s newfound “apolitical” stance has led to allegations of surveillance and censorship, but in a leaked recording of an ask me anything session, CEO Brian Armstrong said the “silent majority” supported the move.

Elsewhere, it was claimed that Coinbase’s management had “stunted internal discussion” and forced employees to delete political Slack messages. The exchange responded to Motherboard’s claims by describing the accusations as “quite extreme and absolutely false.”

During an AMA back in June, Armstrong had reportedly resisted the idea of making a public statement in support of Black Lives Matter following the killing of George Floyd by police. However, he later backtracked and posted a series of tweets in support of BLM.

Coinbase has been hemorrhaging employees of late, with at least 5% of its workforce opting to take an exit package if they were unwilling to avoid political and social issues at work.

 

Following whipsaw launch, Filecoin looks to weeklong conference for stability

It’s been a wild ride for the FIL token following Filecoin’s long-awaited launch.

FIL initially rocketed by 118% before plunging by 80% as the cryptocurrency was listed on major exchanges — three years after the project’s ICO was held.

Now, the blockchain-based data storage platform is hoping to right the ship through a weeklong digital conference that begins on Oct. 19.

“Filecoin Liftoff Week” is going to be centered on education, infrastructure, interoperability, and future plans, with each day focusing on a different theme.

Despite the recent plunge in FIL’s value, the Filecoin team remains optimistic about the project’s future prospects: “This is only the beginning for the Filecoin network.”

 

Ripple’s CTO sold 40,000 Ether for just $1 each

And we end our news roundup with a painful story courtesy of Ripple’s chief technology officer David Schwartz.

He revealed that he and his wife came up with a “derisking plan” for their crypto investments in 2012 — and missed out on millions of dollars in profit as a result.

Schwartz sold 40,000 ETH for $1 each at the time — a stash that would be worth more than $15.5 million at today’s prices.

The Ripple executive also sold a significant sum of BTC for $750 apiece, and a large trove of XRP for $0.10.

He described himself as a “risk averse person with people who depend on me financially and emotionally” but admitted that selling his crypto at this bargain basement prices “hurt.”

 

Winners and Losers

 

Gainers and losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin is at $11,435.68, Ether at $375.90 and XRP at $0.24. The total market cap is at $359,603,174,619.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are ABBC Coin (77.11%), Filecoin (44.49%) and Waves (28.70%). The top three altcoin losers of the week are Arweave (-32.22%), OKB (-23.80%) and Crypto.com Coin (-21.98%).

For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraph’s market analysis

 

Most Memorable Quotations

 

“All your funds and assets are safe. The investigation concerns a certain private key holder’s personal issue only.”

Jay Hao, OKEx CEO

 

“That one person sits in China holding the keys to an entire offshore cryptocurrency exchange is probably the most surprising thing about this industry I learned this year. That customers don’t demand transparency about key management comes in at a close second, though.”

Leo Weese, The Bitcoin Association president

 

“The Chinese government is cracking down on money laundering using cryptocurrency for telecom fraud, and centralized exchanges are in a very dangerous state.”

Colin Wu, crypto reporter

 

“I do believe we’ll be seeing a relatively boring and corrective quarter on the cryptomarkets. In history; $ETH frequently bottoms out in December, to start running the quarter after. $BTC dominance to run up, to have an altseason in Q1 2021. Continuing the patience.”

Michaël van de Poppe, Cointelegraph analyst

 

“You can only try to win the hand with the high hand: gold, silver and Bitcoin. You can’t win playing the low hand unless you’re a sovereign state or a major investment bank, and that’s the game today.”

Max Keiser, broadcaster

 

“We’d like to keep tabs on what other central banks are doing and learn from them, not just from China but from other countries.”

Kazushige Kamiyama, Bank of Japan’s CBDC head

 

“Our eyes are peeled on the $12,000 key resistance level, as we expect further consolidation around current levels going into the elections before breaking into the upside going forward.”

Stack Funds

 

“So if I am to buy the dip, where would the perfect dip be? Well, the perfect dip would be… around $11,000.”

Tone Vays, trader

 

“It’s definitely sending a message to the crypto world that when there are U.S. users of a product or a service, there’s going to be enforcement of U.S. laws.”

“Crypto Mom” Hester Peirce, SEC Commissioner

 

 

Prediction of the Week

Could there be a massive Bitcoin shortage?

Rapid growth of institutional investments in crypto has prompted 10T Holdings co-founder Dan Tapiero to warn that shortages of Bitcoin could be on the horizon.

He warned: “SHORTAGES of Bitcoin possible. Barry’s Grayscale Trust is eating up BTC like there is no tomorrow. If 77% of all newly mined turns into 110%, it’s lights out. Non-miner supply will get held off market in squeeze. Shorts will be dead. Price can go to any number.”

Institutional demand surged rapidly after March when Bitcoin suffered one of its steepest falls in recent history. This indicates that big players see staying power in the world’s biggest cryptocurrency. 

The speculation about a potential supply-side crisis around Bitcoin also coincides with the post-halving cycle. Bitcoin went through its third halving on May 11, and historically, halvings lead to extended bull runs in the two years that follow.

Bitcoin may fall upwards

FUD of the Week

 

G7 will oppose Libra launch until regulations in place

The G7 has warned that it will initially oppose the launch of Facebook’s Libra project.

In a statement that pulled few punches, the Group of Seven wrote: “The G7 continues to maintain that no global stablecoin project should begin operation until it adequately addresses relevant legal, regulatory, and oversight requirements through appropriate design and by adhering to applicable standards.”

The statement was co-authored by central bankers and finance ministers from the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom.

The G7 has previously raised concerns over how to ensure digital assets comply with Anti-Money Laundering laws, consumer protection rules and other regulatory matters.

Last October, one of its reports also warned that global stablecoins pose a threat to the global financial system.

G7 issues warning to stablecoins

16 countries join forces to clamp down on money laundering crypto criminals

Europol has announced that 20 individuals suspected of working for the “QQAAZZ” criminal network have been arrested in an operation that spanned 16 countries.

The organization is accused of laundering tens of millions of euros for top cybercriminals since 2016. About 40 homes were searched as part of “Operation 2BaGoldMule,” with arrests made in Australia, the U.S, the U.K, Portugal, Spain, Latvia and Poland.

On the same day, a 40-year-old man was arrested in New Zealand for using cryptocurrency to launder more than $2 million for criminals — as well as by purchasing luxury vehicles including a Lamborghini and Mercedes G63.

And in the U.S, six individuals have been charged for their participation in a conspiracy to “launder millions of dollars of drug proceeds on behalf of foreign cartels.”

 

Deadline for Mt. Gox trustee rehabilitation plan extended again

The trustee of the now-defunct Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox has obtained another approval to extend the deadline for submitting a rehabilitation plan — this time to Dec. 15.

As reported by Cointelegraph, Nobuaki Kobayashi received a number of similar deadline extensions in March 2020 and April 2019.

The Mt. Gox crypto exchange is known for encountering the largest cryptocurrency hack in history. The exchange lost a total of 1.35 million Bitcoin in two hacks in 2011 and 2014.

Despite the hacks happening years ago, Mt. Gox customers have still not received compensation for their stolen funds. 

Kobayashi, a Japanese lawyer who was appointed to oversee the civil reimbursement process, reportedly has 150,000 BTC to repay users, but the refund process has been delayed multiple times since 2019.

 

Best Cointelegraph Features

 

The curious case of Coinbase — Employees driven out by “apolitical” stance

Coinbase’s new “apolitical” culture has led to some employees taking severance packages, as the crypto community reacts with ambivalence.

 

The next big treasure: Corporations buy up Bitcoin as a treasury reserve

The entry of firms like Square, MicroStrategy and Stone Ridge may open the BTC floodgates and provide “confidence for the rest to follow,” writes Andrew Singer.

 

Game theory meets DeFi: Bouncing ideas around tokenomic design

Andrew Fenton talks to Jack Lu about his new DeFi platform Bounce, which has been described as a decentralized version of eBay, Sotheby’s or Christie’s.



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BTC, NEO, XMR, ADA, LINK

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The total crypto market capitalization has recovered from the Sep. 6 lows near $314 billion but it is struggling to sustain above the $350 billion mark, which shows that higher levels continue to attract sellers.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) dominance fell from above 68% in mid-May to about 56% in the first half of this month as DeFi tokens embarked on a strong bull run. 

However, in the past few days, the DeFi assets have witnessed sharp corrections and their volatility has increased. This could possibly shift traders’ attention back to Bitcoin. It’s also possible that Bitcoin’s inability to hold above the $11,000 level could also be negatively weighing on the confidence of altcoin and DeFi-token traders.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

Although Bitcoin has been struggling to find momentum, a positive is that the volume of Bitcoin futures trading on Bakkt has been increasing and the exchange whale ratio is near yearly lows. This suggests accumulation by the whales and institutional traders.

Currently, most major cryptocurrencies are not following a general trend as the price action has been mostly coin specific. This has opened up opportunities both on the short side and the long side. Hence, in today’s list, two short ideas have been discussed for the traders who are bearish on the crypto markets.

BTC/USD

The relief rally in Bitcoin is facing stiff resistance near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $11,147.60. This shows that the bears have used the current relief rally to initiate short positions.

BTC/USD daily chart

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the bears can sink the price below the uptrend line and the $10,625 support, it will signal weakness. If the BTC/USD pair sustains below $10,625, it will increase the possibility of a retest of $9,835.

However, if the pair rebounds off the $10,625 support sharply, this will be the first sign that the correction might be over. Trading momentum is likely to pick up after the rally breaks above the downtrend line.

If the price closes (UTC time) above the downtrend line, the possibility of a rally to $12,460 increases. Even though there is resistance at $12,000 it seems likely that it will be crossed.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The pair is currently attempting to rebound off the uptrend line, which suggests that the bulls purchased the dip to this support. The buyers will now make one more attempt to push the price above the $11,147.60 resistance.

If the bounce fizzles out and the bears sink the pair below the uptrend line, a drop to $10,625 could occur. This is an important support for the bulls because selling is likely to intensify if this level breaks down.

If the pair rebounds off $10,625, a few days of range-bound action is possible. The flattening moving average on the 4-hour chart suggests a balance between supply and demand. 

NEO/USD

NEO is currently facing stiff resistance at $25.23, which shows that the bears are aggressively defending this resistance. However, as it is in an uptrend, traders are likely to view the dips as a buying opportunity. 

NEO/USD daily chart

NEO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The immediate support on the downside is at $23 and below that at the 10-day simple moving average ($22.26). If the NEO/USD pair rebounds off either support, it will indicate that the bulls are not waiting for a deeper fall to buy which is a positive sign.

If the bulls can push the price above the $25.23–$25.78923 resistance zone, the uptrend is likely to resume. The next target on the upside is $29.

A break below the 10-day SMA will be the first sign that the momentum is weakening and a drop below $20.9633 will signal a possible change in trend.

NEO/USD 4-hour chart

NEO/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls pushed the price above the $25.23 resistance twice but they could not sustain the higher levels. This shows that the bears are attempting to stall the rally at this resistance. 

However, on the downside, the bulls have not allowed the price to sustain below $23, which shows that the buyers are accumulating on every minor dip. 

This could keep the pair stuck between $23 and $25.50 for a few more days. The moving averages have flattened out, which suggests a balance between supply and demand. 

XMR/USD

The recovery in Monero (XMR) from the Sep. 5 low of $74.1012 has been strong and the bulls have pushed the price back above the moving averages, which increases the possibility that the correction might be over. 

XMR/USD daily chart

XMR/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, the bears are unlikely to give up without a stiff fight at the $97.4615 resistance. If the XMR/USD pair turns down sharply from the current levels and breaks below $84, a drop to $74.1012 is possible.

Conversely, if the bulls can arrest the next dip at the 20-day exponential moving average ($89), it will increase the possibility of a breakout of $97.4615. Above this resistance, a move to $105.9131–$107.3742 is possible. A break above $107.3742 can result in a rally to $120.  

XMR/USD 4-hour chart

XMR/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the recovery from $74.1012 has been gradual. Although the bears broke the pair below the 30-EMA on several occasions, they could not capitalize on it and intensify the selling. 

This shows that the bulls are accumulating on dips. Currently, the price has again dipped back below the 30-EMA. If the pair rebounds off the current levels, the bulls will try and drive the price above the overhead resistance at $97.4615.

The short-term momentum is likely to weaken if the bears can break and sustain the price below the immediate support at $87.5629. 

ADA/USD

The relief rally in Cardano (ADA) from the lows of $0.0855982 on Sep. 6 hit a stiff resistance at $0.0997444 on Sep. 13. The moving averages are sloping down, which suggests that the bears are in command.

ADA/USD daily chart

ADA/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

In a downtrend, the bears short on pullbacks to resistance levels as that improves the risk to reward ratio of the trade. Currently, if the bears can sink the ADA/USD pair below the $0.0855982 support, the decline might resume.

Traders can consider taking positions on the short side with an appropriate stop-loss to benefit from the likely down move. The next support on the downside is at $0.074 but if this support fails to hold, the drop can extend to $0.05. 

This bearish view will be invalidated if the pair rebounds off $0.0855982 and the bulls drive the price above $0.10. Such a move will suggest that the downtrend might be over. 

However, it is not necessary that a new uptrend starts as soon as a downtrend ends because many times, the price remains range-bound as it tries to form a bottom. 

Therefore, traders can step aside and wait for a new bullish setup to form if the price breaks above $0.10.

ADA/USD 4-hour chart

ADA/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has been gradually declining towards the critical support at $0.0855982 and a close (UTC time) below this level is likely to start the next leg of the down move.

However, if the pair rebounds off $0.0855982, the bulls will make one more attempt to propel the price above $0.10. If they succeed, a quick relief rally is possible.

Conversely, if the price again turns down from $0.10, the pair might remain range-bound for a few days.

LINK/USD

Chainlink (LINK) is in a downtrend and it has been making a lower high and a lower low pattern for the past few days, which shows that the bears are using the relief rallies to sell. 

LINK/USD daily chart

LINK/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

The down sloping moving averages suggest that the trend favors the bears. If they can sink the LINK/USD pair below $9.65, a drop to $9 is likely. This is an important support to watch out for because a break below this level is likely to resume the downtrend.

The next support on the downside is $7. Therefore, traders can consider benefiting from the possible down-move.

This bearish view will be invalidated if the pair turns up from the current levels or rebounds off sharply from the $9 levels and breaks above the downtrend line. 

LINK/USD 4-hour chart

LINK/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

On Sep. 5 and 6, the bears were unable to sustain the price below $10.50, which shows that the bulls were attempting to defend this level. 

However, during the current fall, the price has been sustaining below $10.50 for the past two days, which suggests that the buying has dried up.

The moving averages are sloping down gradually and the price is below the averages, which suggests that the advantage is with the bears.

A break above the 30-EMA will be the first sign that the bears are losing their grip. Until then, the path of least resistance is to the downside. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.



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